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West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Oil trades around $97.20 per barrel on Thursday, down 1.68% on the day after reaching an intraday high of $100.15, as markets balance improving supply conditions against escalating geopolitical risks.Crude Oil prices pull back after the United States (US) partially eased sanctions on Venezuela, allowing companies to resume limited dealings with the country’s state-owned Oil firm. This move helps ease global supply concerns, further supported by the resumption of crude flows from Iraq’s Kirkuk fields to Turkey’s Ceyhan port.At the same time, the White House announced a temporary waiver of the Jones Act, allowing foreign…

Gold (XAU/USD) extends its decline on Thursday, slipping to over a one-month low as shifting near-term macroeconomic dynamics overshadow its traditional safe-haven appeal, despite heightened geopolitical tensions from the ongoing US-Israel war with Iran.At the time of writing, XAU/USD is trading around $4,617, its lowest level since February 2, remaining on the back foot for a seventh consecutive day.Gold has remained under sustained downside pressure since Middle East tensions escalated, as the surge in Oil prices triggered fresh inflation concerns, reinforcing the global “higher-for-longer” interest rate narrative, which reduces the appeal of the non-yielding metal. This view was further supported…

The RBI focused much of its intervention in offshore markets, particularly through non-deliverable forwards. | Photo Credit: FRANCIS MASCARENHAS India ramped up use of a key tool for defending the rupee to record levels as the currency weakened to an all-time low against the dollar, according to people familiar with the matter.The Reserve Bank of India’s net-short dollar book, a measure of the degree it has sold forward its stockpile of US currency, is nearing $100 billion across offshore and onshore markets, said the people, who asked not to be identified as the information is private. The measure was $67.8…

ING’s Francesco Pesole argues that recent mixed signals from global central banks will likely encourage the ECB to avoid firm guidance, especially given its sensitivity to Oil after 2022. With around 55bp of hawkish repricing in one-year ECB expectations, ING sees dovish risks for Euro rates and expects EUR/USD could trade back close to 1.140 by week’s end.ECB repricing points to downside risks”The four G10 central banks that have met so far this week have sent mixed signals to the ECB. The Reserve Bank of Australia has brought forward a cut that appeared scheduled for May, the Bank of Canada…

Gold (XAU/USD) stages a modest recovery from the $4,800 mark, or the lowest level since February 6, touched during the Asian session on Thursday, amid a modest downtick in the US Dollar (USD). Moreover, heightened geopolitical uncertainties turn out to be another factor offering some support to the safe-haven bullion. However, the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) hawkish outlook could limit deeper USD losses and cap the non-yielding yellow metal, warranting caution for bullish traders.Energy infrastructure in Persian Gulf countries came under attack today following Israeli strikes on Iran’s South Pars natural gas field – the world’s largest. In response, US…

The rupee plunged to a fresh lifetime low Wednesday to close at $92.63/$1 after data on Indian crude oil imports showed New Delhi’s latest energy purchases this month cost $111 a barrel on average, pushing refiners and corporates to buy US dollars to help meet their respective commercial commitments.Traders said the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) was seen protecting the 92.50/$ level for the past three days, but mid-afternoon publication of the oil premium data tilted the scales heavily in favour of the greenback. Once the rupee breached the 92.50 level around 2.45 pm, there was elevated demand for dollars,…

US President Donald Trump’s administration plans to deploy thousands of US troops to reinforce its operation in the Middle East, as the US military prepares for possible next steps in its campaign against Iran, Reuters reported on Thursday. The deployments could help provide Trump with additional options as he weighs expanding US operations, with the Iran war going into its third week.Market reactionAt the time of writing, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is down 0.81% on the day at $97.05. Risk sentiment FAQs In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off” refer to the…

EUR/USD recovers part of its earlier decline on Wednesday as the US Dollar (USD) eases slightly from daily highs, offering modest support to the Euro (EUR) ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate decision at 18:00 GMT.At the time of writing, the pair is trading around 1.1518 after briefly slipping below the 1.1500 mark during the European trading session.Earlier in the day, the Greenback found support after reports of an attack on Iran’s South Pars gas field, adding fresh stress to already rattled energy markets amid the ongoing US and Israeli conflict with Iran. The latest escalation has intensified…

DBS’s Philip Wee notes that Japanese authorities have sharply escalated verbal intervention as the Japanese Yen weakens toward 160 against the Dollar, citing speculative moves and rising living costs. Markets are watching for possible Ministry of Finance action if USD/JPY fails to break below trendline support at 158.80. The pair remains underpinned near 159 ahead of major central bank meetings.Yen under pressure near 160 handle”In Japan, Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama has significantly intensified verbal intervention efforts, characterizing the JPY’s recent depreciation as speculative and disconnected from economic fundamentals.””Expressing a “strong sense of urgency,” Katayama highlighted the adverse impact of a…

The rupee slumped 23 paise to close at a record low of 92.63 (provisional) against the US dollar on Wednesday, weighed down by a stronger greenback and sustained FII outflows.Elevated crude oil prices in global markets amid intensifying conflict in West Asia further dampened sentiments, forex traders said.At the interbank foreign exchange, the local unit opened at 92.42 against the greenback and traded in the range of 92.41-92.48 for most of the session before losing ground at the fag end to close at its record low of 92.63 (provisional), down 23 paise from its previous close.The rupee logged its record…