Author: admin

MUFG notes robust Korean export growth, especially in semiconductors, but says KRW has underperformed on heavy foreign equity outflows and AI-valuation concerns. With the Bank of Korea seen at the end of its easing cycle and KRW volatility elevated, MUFG expects choppy trading, though its forecasts show a gradual USD/KRW drift lower through 2026.Equity outflows hit Korean Won”That said, we still think the BoK’s easing cycle has ended given the improving economic fundamental, financial stability risk related to Seoul’s housing market and heightened KRW volatility.””This week, KRW was the underperformer in Asia with 2% depreciation against US dollar given significant…

The US Dollar (USD) saw little movement this week after markets assessed the United States (US) President Donald Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh, a former member of the Federal Reserve (Fed) Board of Governors, as the next Fed Chair, and the partial US government shutdown that pushed employment and inflation data to next week. The shutdown was ultimately resolved on Wednesday when President Trump signed a funding bill.The US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading near the 97.60 price zone after hitting two-week highs earlier on Friday. Next week, the US ADP Employment Change four-week average will be released on Tuesday,…

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) climbed sharply on Friday, adding half a percent against the US Dollar (USD) after January labor market data showed the unemployment rate dropping to 6.5%, its lowest reading since September 2024. The Loonie found support despite headline employment falling by 25,000, as a sharp decline in labor force participation drove the jobless rate lower. USD/CAD pulled back toward 1.3634, trimming gains accumulated over recent weeks.Labor market details were mixed. The unemployment rate fell three-tenths of a percentage point to 6.5%, but the improvement came primarily from 94,000 people exiting the labor force rather than from job…

DBS Group Research report, authored by Radhika Rao, reports that Moody’s has changed Indonesia’s rating outlook to ‘negative’ from ‘stable’ while affirming the Baa2 rating. The agency cited concerns about reduced predictability in policymaking and increased spending without corresponding revenue generation. The report emphasizes the potential for a downgrade if policy actions do not improve over the next 12-18 months.Moody’s negative rating outlook”Moody’s Ratings changed Indonesia’s rating outlook to ‘negative; from ‘stable’ on late Thursday, while affirming the Baa2 rating. The agency expressed far ranging concerns, citing “reduced predictability in policymaking, which risks undermining policy effectiveness and points to weakening…

Gold price (XAU/USD) rallies more than 3% on Friday, poised for a decent weekly gain as dip buyers emerged, following a session that pushed the yellow metal below the $4,800 mark. Worth noting that Friday has been a volatile session, with the non-yielding metal falling to a three-day low of $4,655 before erasing those previous losses. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades at $4,963.XAU/USD stages a sharp rebound toward $4,950 as soft US labor data revives Fed easing betsThe non-yielding metal is enjoying a healthy recovery from Thursday. Greenback’s initial weakness on Friday reflected worse-than-expected US labor market data…

UOB’s report by Enrico Tanuwidjaja and Sathit Talaengsatya discusses the Bank of Thailand’s (BOT) shift from solely using interest rates to a broader policy framework. The BOT aims to address structural economic issues such as low productivity and high inequality while maintaining an accommodative interest rate policy. The report anticipates a final 25bps cut in February 2026, bringing the policy rate to 1.00%, which is expected to be sustained through 2026-27.BOT’s strategic policy adjustments”FX becomes a more operational domain, not just a communications domain. The BOT has raised concerns about baht appreciation and non-fundamental flows, including gold-linked flows that can…

The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 1,050 points, or 2.15%, to close at 49,958.72, a fresh record high on Friday as stocks rebounded sharply from Thursday’s tech-led selloff. The S&P 500 climbed 1.2% to 6,880.13, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.0% to 22,765.45. The strong rebound came as investors reassessed concerns about artificial intelligence disruption and the impact of massive spending plans from Big Tech companies, with chipmakers and financials leading the market higher.Chipmakers rebound as AI infrastructure spending fears easeSemiconductor stocks staged a powerful rally on Friday as investors looked past concerns about the sustainability of artificial intelligence investments.…

Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly said on a LinkedIn post on Friday that a low-hiring, low-firing environment may persist, or it may change to a no-hiring, more-firing environment.Key quotesWe must watch both sides of our mandate. Americans deserve both price stability and full employment.We’ve been in a relatively low-hiring, low-firing environment for some time. That may persist, but workers are aware that things could change quickly, leaving them in a no-hiring, more-firing labor market. US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US…

The report by Nordea, authored by Jan Størup Nielsen and Anders Svendsen, discusses the Danish Krone’s (DKK) recent performance against the Euro. Despite a weakened Krone, the Danish central bank has not intervened in the foreign exchange market, indicating stability in the current interest rate spread. The report also highlights factors contributing to the Krone’s weakening and the potential for a seasonal decline.Danish Krone’s performance and outlook”Despite the high level in EUR/DKK in January, new data from the Danish central bank shows that there has not yet been intervention in the foreign exchange market to defend the fixed exchange rate…

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has removed the Rs 2.5 lakh crore long term investment limit under the Voluntary Retention Route (VRR) to deepen the debt market by providing more flexibility to foreign portfolio investors (FPIs). Still, overall investment limits remain in place, ensuring sufficient regulatory controls over overseas ownership of Indian debt. The central bank said that investments under VRR will now be reckoned under the overall limit for FPI investments. The move, which will come into effect from April, is aimed at improving operational flexibility for FPIs and enhancing the ease of doing business.All existing investments under…