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ING’s Frantisek Taborsky highlights a light CEE data calendar but focuses on Hungary, where the National Bank of Hungary is expected to restart its cutting cycle with a 25bp move to 6.25%. He sees further cuts in March and notes that risk-off sentiment from US trade headlines may be partly offset by a weaker Dollar, with EUR/HUF testing carry resilience after recent lows near 378.NBH cuts and carry positioning in focus”Tomorrow, the National Bank of Hungary, according to our expectations, will open the cutting cycle again and cut rates by 25bp to 6.25%, the first time since September 2024.””Particular attention…

Commerzbank’s Economic Research team, led by Dr. Vincent Stamer, outlines how US trade policy is shifting after the Supreme Court ruling on earlier Trump tariffs. The new 15% global tariff is based on Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, interacts with MFN duties and sectoral tariffs.Section 122, MFN base and sectoral carve-outs”Donald Trump is invoking Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. This allows the president to impose additional tariffs of up to 15% for a period of up to 150 days in the event of an existing trade deficit. The additional duty may therefore not exceed…

The rupee gained 7 paise to settle at 90.87 (provisional) against the US dollar on Monday, aided by a sharp fall in global crude oil prices and a weaker greenback amid renewed global trade-related uncertainties. However, foreign fund outflows, coupled with geopolitical concerns, capped gains for the local unit, forex traders said. At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 90.76 and traded in the range of 90.67-90.89 against the greenback during the session. It eventually settled at 90.87 (provisional), up 7 paise from its previous close. The rupee plunged 26 paise to settle at 90.94 against the US…

BNY’s Head of Markets Macro Strategy Bob Savage expects rate cuts from Bank of Israel and Hungarian National Bank as inflation softens and exchange rates remain elevated. The report notes that both ILS and HUF have been strong sources of tightening, with markets focused on whether easing cycles will be precautionary or more prolonged, given ample room to cut from high starting policy rates.Israel and Hungary set for easing cycles”In EMEA, Bank of Israel (BoI) and Hungarian National Bank (MNB) decisions this week are likely to yield cuts as central banks react to materially softer inflation and elevated exchange rate…

Highlights RBI’s forward book maturities may pressure rupee, bankers say NDF contracts worth at least $7 billion set to mature this week Durable inflows could reduce RBI’s forward positions, alleviate rollover ​pressure, bankers add Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) reliance on ‌using the non-deliverable forward market to manage rupee volatility is expected ​to weigh on the currency, with contracts worth at least $7 billion ⁠due to mature this week and more due in the coming weeks, four bankers said.Selling dollar/rupee forwards in the NDF market lets the Reserve Bank of India support the ‌rupee without an immediate drain on foreign…

The rupee surged by 21 paise to 90.73 against the US dollar in early trade on Monday, aided by a sharp fall in global crude oil prices and a weaker greenback amid renewed uncertainties over US President Donald Trump hiking tariffs to 15 per cent. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, was down 1.09 per cent at USD 70.98 per barrel. A strong opening in domestic equity markets, along with a jump in forex reserves, provided further support to the local unit, according to forex traders.At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 90.76 against the US dollar and…

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, extends its losses for the second successive session, trading around 97.50 during the Asian hours on Monday.The dollar index weakened against major currencies as persistent uncertainty around the United States (US) trade policy and disappointing economic data weighed on investor sentiment. Recent legal and policy developments have compounded confusion over the outlook for tariffs and growth.Global markets remain on edge after the US Supreme Court struck down most of President Donald Trump’s emergency tariff authority, limiting the use of emergency powers to…

US President Donald Trump is considering limited airstrikes on Iran, the New York Times reported on Sunday. Trump said that if diplomacy or any initial targeted US attack does not lead Iran to give in to his demands that it give up its nuclear program, he will consider a much bigger attack in coming months.The next round of talks between the US and Iran will be on Thursday in Geneva. However, Trump weighs options for US action if the negotiations fail.Market reactionAt the time of press, the US Dollar Index (DXY) was down 0.36% on the day at 97.40. Risk sentiment FAQs In…

For months, the U.S. dollar has looked tired. The U.S. Dollar Index has remained below the psychological 100 mark since November, slipping nearly 6.5% since what markets dubbed “Liberation Day”. The dollar, once the unquestioned king of currencies, suddenly found itself defending ground rather than gaining it.For a currency that typically strengthens during global uncertainty, this weakness felt unusual. But storms do not last forever. And now, the very concerns that dragged the dollar lower may slowly be turning into reasons for a rebound.Why the Dollar Was StrugglingThe dollar’s weakness was not random; it was built on a series of…

The dollar declined in volatile trading on Friday and was poised to snap a four-session streak of gains after the U.S. Supreme Court struck down President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs based on a national emergency law. The justices, in a 6-3 ruling authored by conservative Chief Justice John Roberts, upheld a lower court’s decision that the Republican president’s use of this 1977 law exceeded his authority. The dollar was initially higher on the day after U.S. economic data showed a higher-than-anticipated inflation reading while economic growth fell well short of expectations. The Commerce Department said gross domestic product increased at…