Indian rupee ends flat as market awaits key inflation data in US and India

The Indian rupee was largely unchanged on Tuesday with traders in “wait and watch” mode awaiting the release of key inflation data in the U.S. and India later in the day, which could provide clues on the interest rate trajectories in the two economies.

The local currency unit closed marginally 0.06% higher at 87.7125 against Monday’s close of 87.6600.

India’s consumer price index (CPI) data for July is expected to show inflation at its slowest pace in at least eight years. The U.S. July data, due after the release of India’s report, is expected to show that core inflation rose at the pace of 0.3%.

The recent weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report has bolstered bets that the Federal Reserve will cut rates next month, with investors pricing in a 90% chance of a rate cut in September.

However, U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs have added uncertainty to the inflation outlook, complicating the Fed’s policy path, which makes the inflation data on Tuesday crucial for clues about the interest rate trajectory in the world’s largest economy.

“Traders are avoiding any unwarranted bets ahead of the inflation data releases,” said Dilip Parmar, forex analyst at HDFC Securities. Trump’s scheduled meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday has also prompted the market to be cautious, with traders avoiding any reckless bets owing to the global geopolitical uncertainties, Parmar added. Most Asian currencies, too, stayed flat against a steady dollar. The U.S. dollar index was marginally higher at 98.54 at 1035 GMT.