The rupee pared initial gains and settled for the day down 5 paise at 86.36 (provisional) against the US dollar on Tuesday, amid uncertainty over the US-India trade deal ahead of the August 1 deadline.
Forex traders said, all eyes are now on the outcome of India-US trade talks, especially as the August 1 deadline for potential tariffs on Indian exports draws near.
The weakness in the American currency and softening of crude oil prices supported the rupee at lower levels, while foreign fund outflows and a negative trend in domestic equities weighed on the local unit and restricted the upside.
At the interbank foreign exchange, the domestic unit opened at 86.26 against the greenback and touched an intra-day high of 86.22 and a low of 86.41 against the greenback.
At the end of Tuesday’s trading session, the local unit settled at 86.36 (provisional), down 5 paise over its previous closing price.
On Monday, the rupee depreciated 15 paise to close at 86.31 against the US dollar.
“We expect the rupee to trade with a slight negative bias on trade deal talks. However, weakness in the American currency and softening of crude oil prices may support the rupee at lower levels,” Anuj Choudhary, Research Analyst at Mirae Asset Sharekhan, said.
Meanwhile, the US team will visit India in August for the next round of negotiations for the proposed bilateral trade agreement between the two countries, an official said on Monday.
India and the US teams concluded the fifth round of talks for the agreement last week in Washington.
These deliberations are important as both sides are looking at finalising an interim trade deal before August 1, which marks the end of the suspension period of Trump tariffs imposed on dozens of countries, including India (26 per cent).
If the discussions fail or get delayed, Indian exporters could face fresh pressure — adding to the rupee’s challenges. However, if a deal is reached, it could offer a much-needed breather. Until then, the uncertainty is likely to keep market participants cautious.
“Traders may remain cautious ahead of PMI and durable goods orders data from the US this week,” Choudhary said, adding that USD-INR spot price is expected to trade in a range of 86.10 to 86.65.
Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, fell 0.03 per cent to 97.82.
Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, fell 0.94 per cent to $68.56 per barrel in futures trade.
In the domestic equity market, the 30-share BSE Sensex declined 13.53 points, or 0.02 per cent, to close at 82,186.81, while the Nifty fell 29.80 points, or 0.12 per cent, to settle at 25,060.90.
Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) offloaded equities worth ₹1,681.23 crore on a net basis on Monday, according to exchange data.
Published on July 22, 2025
