The rupee closed at 95.11 to a dollar, against the previous close of 94.82 against the greenback, as the market turned cautious with the Brent crude hovering over $100 a barrel, traders said.
“The intensified military actions involving the US, Iran and regional proxies have heightened the oil supply anxiety. The shipping choke points are threatening the global crude flows,” said NS Ramaswamy, head of commodities, Ventura.
The currency weakened to 95.23 intra-day, while the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) intervention helped it to regain some ground, according to people aware of the development.
In addition to spot dollar sales, the central bank also likely conducted very short sell-buy swaps maturing in September and October to absorb some excess rupee liquidity from the system, two people said.
This led the forward premiums for September and October rise about 2.5 paise and 4 paisa, respectively.
The banking system had surplus liquidity of Rs 10.5 lakh crore as of Tuesday.“A relentless surge in global oil prices has reignited inflationary fears for India, pushing the rupee into defensive territory as it depreciated 29 paise to close at 95.11. However, swift intervention by the Reserve Bank of India—via onshore dollar sales and anticipation of central bank sell–buy swaps—helped the local currency trim early losses,” HDFC Securities deputy vice president Nandish Shah said.
Veteran foreign exchange consultant KN Dey said that the rupee might trade in the range of 94.80 to 95.50 going forward. Rupee may touch 94.30/35 against if there is any de-escalation in the Middle East conflict and Brent falls below $90 dollars a barrel.
