Chris Turner at ING describes EUR/USD as contained after a rally stalled just above 1.16, with investors cautious due to high natural gas prices and upcoming FOMC minutes. He expects a 1.1520–1.1580 range near term, while higher energy supports ECB hike expectations. ING maintains forecasts for EUR/USD at 1.17 by end-September and 1.18 by year-end.
Euro capped by energy and Fed risk
“Yesterday’s EUR/USD rally stalled shortly above 1.16, and investors will be reluctant to push it much higher given energy price developments and ahead of the FOMC minutes tomorrow night.”
“Despite recent positive economic surprises in the eurozone, the fact that natural gas prices are close to their highs for the year merits some caution.”
“Higher energy prices are firming up expectations of a 25bp hike from the European Central Bank in September and keeping views alive of another 25bp hike by early next year.”
“We could see EUR/USD trade out a 1.1520-1.1580 range today. And a reminder that we have a forecast for 1.17 by the end of September on the view that the Fed does not hike and 1.18 for year-end.”
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
