RaboResearch Global Economics & Markets discusses how Euro sentiment has cooled after optimism around Germany’s debt brake, with political risks and structural headwinds weighing on the currency. The bank notes EUR/USD is already priced for another ECB hike and expects sideways trading near current levels in the coming months, with only a modest upward bias further out.
Euro sentiment cools after 2025 surge
“While higher short-term interest rates are currency supportive, the market is already fully priced for another ECB rate hike this year, suggesting that one more policy move is unlikely to offer much support for the EUR. On balance, we expect EUR/USD to trade sideways close to current levels on a 1-to-3-month view.”
“Irrespective of this, it is worth noting that the EUR was the second best performing G10 currency in Q2 2025 after the safe haven CHF. This highlights the part the EUR played in emphasising the sharp rise in the EUR/USD in that period.”
“The EUR now appears to have lost that momentum and that has clear implications for the outlook for EUR/USD.”
“In our view, the market is likely to be reluctant to rebuild large, long positions in the EUR in the months ahead. That said, while the USD has benefited from a resilient US economy, it is RaboResearch’s view that hawkish bets on the Fed are overdone.”
“We expect sideways trading in EUR/USD on a 3-month view and a modest upward bias to emerge in the currency pair on a 3-to-6-month view.”
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
