HSBC portrays Vietnam as one of Asia’s fastest-growing economies, supported by booming electronics exports and import-intensive manufacturing. However, a widening trade deficit and elevated Oil prices are eroding the current account surplus and pushing inflation above the State Bank of Vietnam’s ceiling. The bank trims its external surplus forecast and raises its 2026 inflation projection.
Fast expansion with external and price pressures
“Despite moderating from last year’s 8%, the country saw rather decent growth of 7.8% y-o-y in 1Q26. This easily made Vietnam sustain its position asone of Asia’s fast-growing economies.”
“Nevertheless, a detailed look at trade data shows Vietnam’s trade resilience. Exports jumped almost 20% y-o-y YTD on average, thanks to booming electronics shipments.”
“Despite booming exports, Vietnam’s imports grew even more, rising 30% y-o-y YTD. This is also understandable, to an extent, as Vietnam’s manufacturing sector is rather import-intensive.”
“Since December 2025, Vietnam has consistently run a trade deficit, which widened to a record level of USD5.2bn in May. We do not think Vietnam will enter a “twin deficit” situation, as the tourism receipts and secondary income will help.”
“Fast forward to today, Vietnam’s inflation rose sharply to 5.6% in May, breaching the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV)’s 4.5% inflation ceiling for the third month running. While the significant jump in petrol prices was the main culprit, it is important not to ignore the recent hike in food prices.”
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
