ING’s Commodities Strategist Ewa Manthey notes that Gold has sold off sharply after record highs, pressured by higher Treasury yields, a stronger Dollar and weaker ETF demand. ING now expects Gold to rise more slowly and with greater volatility, cutting its 2026 Q3 and Q4 average price forecasts while stressing that structural supports such as central bank buying and geopolitical risks remain intact.
Forecast downgrade but structure intact
“While we remain constructive on gold over the medium term, the near-term environment has become more challenging. As a result, we are lowering our gold price forecasts.”
“Higher yields, a stronger dollar and weaker ETF demand are likely to weigh on gold for longer than we previously anticipated.”
“The primary driver behind gold’s recent decline has been a significant repricing of interest rate expectations.”
“Gold’s correction has prompted a reset in our forecasts, but not in our broader view of the market. We continue to believe the structural drivers supporting gold remain intact, though the path higher is likely to be slower and more volatile than we previously expected.”
“We now expect gold to average $4,300/oz in the third quarter of 2026 and $4,600/oz in the fourth quarter, down from our previous forecasts of $4,850/oz and $5,000/oz, respectively.”
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
