The rupee closed higher for the fifth consecutive trading session, buoyed by the US and Iran signing an initial agreement to end the West Asia conflict. This softened crude oil prices, which will reduce India’s import bill.
The rupee closed 20 paise stronger at 94.33 per US dollar against the previous close of 94.53. Intra-day, it touched a high of 94.21, the strongest level in over six weeks.
Amit Pabari, MD, CR Forex Advisors, said: “For now, markets are focused on the possibility of peace. As a result, Brent crude slipped below $79 per barrel on Thursday, returning to levels last seen before the conflict began.
“For India, this matters enormously. Lower oil prices reduce India’s import bill, ease inflation concerns and lower structural demand for dollars. And the currency is responding.”
He noted that the rupee remains well supported by lower oil prices, strong bond inflows and improving market sentiment.
Dilip Parmar, Research Analyst, HDFC Securities, said: “The rupee remains the lead performer among its Asian peers, energised by a resurgence of capital inflows and cooling oil prices.
“With risk-on sentiment back in the driver’s seat, we expect the local rupee to march toward 94 on the back of dollar inflows. Technically, the USDINR spot is boxed between a crucial resistance at 94.90 and firm support at 94.10.”
Barclays, in a report, said the INR has been one of the clearest losers of the Iran war – weakening against an EM FX basket, let alone against the USD. But the Reserve Bank of India and the Ministry of Finance have not been passive observers of the rupee’s slide.
“In early June, the RBI took decisive action – and it seems to have broken the one-way trade. The RBI reopened its Foreign Currency Non-Resident deposit window — the same crisis-era instrument it deployed during the 2013 taper tantrum, when it pulled in $34 billion in a matter of weeks and arrested a freefall in the currency.
“The terms are deliberately generous: dollar deposits of three to five years earning up to 7.1%, with the RBI absorbing the full hedging cost for participating banks and exempting the deposits from reserve requirements,” said Barclays economists Ajay Rajadhyaksha and Aastha Gudwani.
They noted that the campaign targets the Indian diaspora, with global banks estimating inflows of several tens of billions of dollars by the time the window closes in September (notably, the economy is in far better shape than 2013, with political stability, better credit ratings, and a better growth profile).
“This scheme has been met with significant enthusiasm from the Indian diaspora, in our view. The one-way positioning against the currency that characterised the first five months of the year has lost its momentum,” opined the Barclays economists.
Published on June 18, 2026
