Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi warns of serious consequences, in a post on X, formerly known as Twitter, that the United States (US) and Israel would face serious consequences if there were any military action across all fronts, including Lebanon.
“A ceasefire between Iran and the United States constitutes, without any ambiguity, a comprehensive ceasefire across all fronts, including Lebanon. Any violation of this ceasefire on one front shall be considered a violation of it across all fronts. The United States and Israel bear responsibility for the consequences of any breach of the truce,” Araghchi wrote.
Market Reaction
There seems to be a slight negative impact on S&P 500 futures from Iran Araghchi’s warning against US and Israel attacks on all fronts, including Lebanon. S&P 500 futures drop marginally, but are still 0.2% higher to near 7,600 ahead of US markets opening.
Risk sentiment FAQs
In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off” refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.
Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.
The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.
The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
