Brent crude fell below $100 per barrel, down nearly 3% and reversing course after touching a peak of $102.5 on the day, as the United States and Iran edge toward a temporary agreement to halt their war, sources and officials said.
The retreat in oil prices lifted Asian currencies broadly, including the rupee, which strengthened by as much as 0.5% before ending the session at 94.25, sharply stronger than its intra-day low of 94.9025.
The pullback in crude prices offers much-needed relief for India, the world’s third-largest oil importer. Surging oil prices since the start of the Middle East war had prompted economists to forecast a weaker rupee, revise inflation expectations higher and lower India’s economic growth outlook.
Dollar-rupee forward premiums, the cost of hedging currency exposure, retreated, with the one-year forward implied yield slipping to a three-week low of 2.97%.
There was very heavy selling interest in the NDF market, which likely means short rupee wagers were unwound, a trader at a foreign bank said.
A second trader at a private lender added that a large Indian state-run bank and a U.K. headquartered bank were seen selling dollars heavily in the local spot market.The one-month dollar-rupee 25-delta risk reversal, a gauge of options market sentiment, signalled reduced appetite for bearish rupee wagers.
“The improvement in global investor risk sentiment and drop in energy prices is providing a tailwind for emerging market currency performance,” analysts at MUFG said in a note.
“Latest developments add to investor confidence that the US and Iran continue to make progress to find a diplomatic solution,” the note said.
Asian currencies were up between 0.2% and 0.6%, while the dollar index eased 0.2% to 97.87.
Global equities benefited from the improved risk mood, with MSCI’s gauge of Asia pacific stocks gaining more than 2%.
